SPEAKING FREELY: WHY WE CAN WIN STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 98

Yes, it is possible.

A Democrat could win the January 6th special election for South Carolina House District 98 and put a small dent in the supermajority of Republicans who control the State Legislature and who have kept South Carolina stuck in the 1950s.

The reasons for optimism are many, and not just that electoral tailwinds favor Democrats, as the recent elections from New Jersey to California prove.

First, we have a candidate: Dr. Sonja Ogletree Satani (Dr. SOS for short). She won the primary easily with 878 votes of 1522 cast, thereby avoiding a run-off. Republicans were not as fortunate. Two of them must contend in a run-off later in November, bleeding time and resources.

Second, there is no incumbent. Republican Chris Murphy, who entered the Assembly in 2011 and amassed considerable power, resigned the seat in 2025. Whichever Republican wins the run-off won't have his name recognition. But Dr. SOS has been here before. She ran against Murphy in 2024, establishing name recognition in the district.

Third, although she lost to Murphy, she attracted 7,429 votes. Two years earlier, the first-time Democratic candidate Sydney Clinton (a brave and energetic college student at USC), received 4,925 votes. Dr. SOS proved she could significantly grow the Democratic vote in the district in a year with Trump on the ballot. With a likely reduced turnout in the special election on January 6, Dr. SOS can win if she can turn out many of the 7,429 who voted for her in 2024.

Fourth, having run before, Dr. SOS knows what it takes in financing, shoe leather, and messaging to win. Often we Democrats field candidates who have never run before. Not this time.

Fifth, Dr. SOS has the background that proved successful to the Democrats who won the governorships in New Jersey and Virginia on November 4. She has military, business and higher education experience. She can address the affordability issues that are now damaging Republicans, from Trump on down.

Last, something is happening in the electorate. I offer as proof an election result below the radar of national political journalists, who think the new mayor of New York City is the only political story of note. (They are dead wrong, of course.)

I spent 27 years living in Onondaga County, an area around Syracuse in upstate New York. On November 4, for the first time in 50 years (!!) Democrats took over the county legislature. All six Democrats who challenged six Republicans won their races. It was a political earthquake which no one anticipated. If it can happen in Republican upstate New York, it can happen here.

South Carolina won't be a super majority Republican state forever. The campaign for District 98 could be the first one to prove it.